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Trump Vs Harris : The Future of the World in the Hands of American's
Who will win the Crucial and future election of the U.S.A that will takes place the 05 November 2024. This is a Crucial choice for the future of the U.S.A and for the Future of the Majority of the Planet.
— Four days before Election Day, an estimated 60 million votes have already been cast in the presidential race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. It’s possible the polls are wrong, but it’s unlikely they will change much before this long and winding campaign cycle ends. Polling analysts, who have varying methods of averaging polls, have slightly different takes on the race. But without splitting hairs, it’s hard to see this as anything other than an incredibly close race where late turnout trends and polling errors wind up telling us what we cannot know right now: the identity of the 47th president.
In national polling averages, Kamala Harris leads by 1.2 percent per FiveThirtyEight; 1.1 percent per Nate Silver; 2 percent according to the Washington Post (which rounds numbers) and one percent according to the New York Times (which also rounds numbers). RealClearPolitics, which unlike the other outlets doesn’t weigh polls for accuracy or adjust them for partisan bias, shows Trump leading nationally by 0.3 percent.
— While national polls can help us understand trends and underlying dynamics, mostly because they tend to have larger samples, the fact that they have been so very close for weeks if not months suggests they can’t tell us who will actually win. The best we can do is extrapolate, based on the relationship between the national popular vote and the electoral vote count in previous election. It makes Democrats nervous to see Harris leading Trump by under 2 percent in the national polls because Hillary Clinton lost in 2016 while winning the national popular vote by 2.1 percent, while Joe Biden barely won in 2020 despite winning the popular vote by 4.5 percent. But we have no idea if Trump will again have an Electoral College advantage, and if so how large it might be. (Harris might actually perform better in the Electoral College than in the popular vote, as Barack Obama did in 2012.) And while we don’t know how polling errors will cut, it does seem the overall quality of polls this year is higher than in recent presidential elections.
— it’s a better idea to focus on polls in the seven battleground states. But they too are crazy close overall. You can identify leaders in all seven if you get down to fractions. FiveThirtyEight currently shows Trump leading in five of those seven states (Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania), but by less than a half-point in Nevada and Pennsylvania. Harris leads in Michigan and Wisconsin, but again, it’s by less than one percent in the latter. The rounded battleground state numbers in the New York Times averages shows the candidates even in Nevada, Harris leading by less than a point in Wisconsin and Trump leading by less than a point in Pennsylvania; Harris leads by one point in Michigan, while Trump leads by one point in North Carolina, two points in Georgia and three points in Arizona. A one percent uniform swing could give Harris 292 electoral votes or Trump 312 electoral votes. The Washington Post’s battleground-state averages make the same point in a slightly different way. They show Harris leading in four states (Michigan and Wisconsin by 2 percent and Nevada and Pennsylvania by less than one percent) and Trump in three (Arizona and Georgia by two percent, and North Carolina by one percent). But then the Post makes this crucial observation: “Every state is within a normal-sized polling error of 3.5 points and could go either way.”
— Both national and state polls suggest that the dynamics of the Harris-Trump contest remain reasonably clear. On the issues, Trump is very strong with voters who care most about immigration and continues to lead in most polls (though by shrinking margins) among voters focused on the economy. Meanwhile, Harris has a big lead among voters worried about abortion rights. If you start with the Biden-Trump divisions in the electorate from 2020, Harris has improved the Democratic performance among college-educated white voters, while Trump has improved the Republican performance among Black and Latino voters. Unsurprisingly, this puts a small thumb on the scales for Harris in the states with relatively low nonwhite voting blocs (e.g., Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin), and helps Trump in Sun Belt states like Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina. But there are some contradictory undercurrents, with the Harris campaign working hard to bring Black men back into her column, while Trump’s entire get-out-the-vote strategy is based on mobilizing low-propensity voters from his core demographic groups (especially non-college-educated white voters). The significant reaction this week of opinion leaders to slurs about Puerto Ricans (a crucial swing demographic in extremely close and pivotal Pennsylvania) offered up by a comedian at Trump’s wild New York City rally shows that campaign-trail events can still affect the outcome.
— So it’s a good idea to keep an eye on late-breaking polls during the final days of the campaign, and to try not to get too distracted by potentially misleading data points and claims. There’s a lot of scrutiny of early voting trends, for example. But aside from reflecting a general drop in voting by mail since the pandemic election of 2020, and the efforts of Republicans to encourage early in-person voting in particular by their partisans, it’s hard to know what the numbers mean since most early voters would otherwise be voting on Election Day and Democrats tend to be relatively “late” early voters. Some of the old reliable indicators of presidential-election outcomes are of limited use. Yes, the president’s job-approval rating is currently at a terrible 38.5 percent (per FiveThirtyEight), but then Kamala Harris has done a reasonably good job of presenting herself as a “change” candidate despite her own incumbency. And yes, Harris has a small but steady advantage over Trump in personal favorability (FiveThirtyEight has her ratio at 46.3 per cent favorable to 47.8 unfavorable, while Trump’s is 43.5 percent favorable to 52.2 percent unfavorable), but so did Hillary Clinton in 2016.
— If you had to pick a likely winner at this point, the official forecasters lean toward Trump by the narrowest of margins (Nate Silver has Trump at a 54 percent probability of winning; Decision Desk HQ and FiveThirtyEight have him at 53 percent; and the Economist gives him a 51 percent chance of winning. Some analysts look at the race in terms of Electoral College scenarios that aren’t very clear; Nate Silver currently projects Trump with 269.1 electoral votes and Harris with 268.9 (270 are necessary for victory). It really couldn’t get much closer. Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball expresses contradictory “gut feelings,” citing trends favoring Trump but noting a sense of déjà vu from 2022 that favors Harris.
My Staying Place's in Armenia (Real TIme Update's)
I will Update my Staying Place at the Hotel or Appartment During my Trip to Armenia,
Due to impossibility to register my Place of Stay with the Police at this Moment (This can be done 1 Month Later)
Actual Place of Stay from 12/10/2024 - 10/11/2024
PRD ∆ Ihostel : 101 Movses Khorenatsi, Kentron District, Yerevan (Behind icar Wash), (Special ATA Passport Berlin-Moscow* № 14678) LEAVING THE 10/11/2024
∆ Working Zone : TIgrant Mets Avenue, Kentron District, Yerevan (Co-Working Zones areas)
Actual Place of Stay from 10/11/2024, Evening - Unknown Date [Trip Yerevan - Gyumri X] Train: ER2
- Gyumri, Armenia , Hotel List will be Given at the Time of Arrival. Arrival Time at 21:46 by a Train from Yerevan central Railway. South Caucasian Railways Train ER2, Number 682.
Staying 48H In the Ghost city of Gyumri and decided to come back due to lack of activities in this Cuty and Low Perspectives.
GOING BACK GYUMRI X to YEREVAN capital city TRAIN Number EP 2D (south caucasian railway)
Coming Back (by Train) to YEREVAN —
- YEREVAN ARABKIR - KENTRON (updates hotels later)
I am Currently Staying in Yerevan, I will add places in coming days.
PRD ∆ Ihostel : 101 Movses Khorenatsi, Kentron District, Yerevan (Behind icar Wash), From 15.11.2024 Until 14.12.2024 (Special ATA Passport Berlin-Moscow* № 14678)
Last booking Ticket confirmation EP2D
∆ Working Zone : Tigrant Mets Avenue, Kentron District, Yerevan (Co-Working Zones areas)
I will update the 13.12.2024 my new place of stay on this page.
My Experience After More than 1 Month living in Yerevan.
My Experience after 1 Month Living in the Capital of Armenia YEREVAN.
I Will Make a short Resume of the Life in Yerevan after more than 1 month if to Compare with a similar Life in Moscow (RUSSIA)
ADMINISTRATION :
The Administrative Offices are Working Better in Yerevan than in Moscow.
Some offices are not working properly, but if you need to get a Document or submit an application you will be able to find a place where to do this in Yerevan.
That is much complicated in Moscow, where some administrations are delocalized to suburbs of Moscow.
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LIVING COST :
The living cost is quite similar, the manufactured goods are more expensive in Yerevan than in Moscow..
The transpoty cost is only 0,25EUR (100 AMD) for my trips inside the city, while taxi with Yandex Taxi is Cheaper or equal to Moscow Prices.
You can Live in Yerevan for 7000 AMD per day if you are staying in some Hostel or 10 000 AMD per Day in a Cheap Hotel, if you rent an accomodation you need to budget 15 000 AMD per Day minimum (all included)
Minimum Budget for 1 month of Living in Yerevan is 210 000 AMD (Around 500 EUR), But this it is not for renting premises, if to rent living premises the total cost will be 450 000 AMD per Month (Around 1 030 EUR) That is Very Similar to Moscow.
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RESTAURANTS IN YEREVAN :
There are plenty of Restaurants in Yerevan, the cost of Restaurants are 20 or 30% more expensive than in Moscow.
You Will find the Same Brands as in Moscow KFC (Rostics), Dominos Pizza and others brands have their franchises There)
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BEST DISTRICTS :
-The Best District regarding Quality/Price, distance from the center of the city is ARABKIR District.
There are Plenty of Guest Houses, Hotels and Hostels in this District.
This District is close to the center.
-The Second Best District is Kentron (central district) where the most Luxurious Hostels are located and with the majority of commercial activity of the city.
-The Third Best District is Erebuni, this is a big District located near the central Kentron District with Housing Facilities and many Building's.
It is Mostly a Residential Building.
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WORK IN YEREVAN :
The Working Situation in Yerevan or Armenia is Worsen than in Russia with higher Unemployment Rate and Smaller Wages.
Typical Wage for a Worker as Manager or Seller in Yerevan is about 200 000 / 250 000 AMD that is about 500/550 EUR and in Moscow is around twice that about 900 to 1200 EUR ( 90 000 to 120 000 RUB)
This result as in Yerevan the Single worker have 2 times less money to cover the same expenses as ihe will have in Moscow, and result as exode population of Armenia to Foreign Countries.
RESUME :
The rating will be 7.7/10 for Living quality Price in Moscow and 7/10 for Living Quality/Price in Yerevan (Mostly due to local economic situation)
If you are working for a Foreign Company in Armenia or your Main source of income is outside Armenia then it will be a rating of 8.5 or 8.5/10 for your personal situation.
MOSCOW : 7.7/10
YEREVAN : 7/10
Anna Jegado became a World Citizen of Antarctica with my and RA help
Anna Jegado Became a Unique World Citizen of Antarctica with the Berlin-Moscow* edition 2020 (Russian Language), number 14715*, Tretyakov Gallery Exposition of the ATA Passport, supported by the Kremlin.
ATA Citizenship were validated today in www.antarcticaworldpassport.com website.
Below i publish the scan of her Passport, her Son Andrii is added inside the document certified Authentic by in Wenzhou, China.
The Document is Valid at least 30 Years till his publication, (picture must be updated at the age of 45 Years old)
Currently in Armenia, with purpose of PA or PR application
I update my personal situation after a long break in the post of this blog, I will soon publish new videos about the Christian Lifestyle in the Armenian Republic.
I crossed the border there one week ago at the Yerevan airport Zvarnots with arrival from Budapest, Hungary.
I already opened a small Business in Yerevan, Armenia and will show my intention to carry out some part of my activity there.
Last days were not very productive due to the Unluck and the lost of time.
I will enter in contact with a law firm to help me to apply for this special procedure.
I still count on Moscow and Kaliningrad support and the airline than bring me here to support a future successful application.
Variant 1, Asylum The Grounds to apply :
• Still Political issues with Ukrainian Authorities in Ukraine, no possible coming back, that falsified a case against me to expeal me from Ukrainewhere lived 10 years due to family reasons.
• French Government Still tracking me and economically persecute me and I were recently not able to renew my ID documents due that french side revoked unlawfully my citizenship.
• My Kaliningrad Lawyer is still fighting in the court in St Petersburg against Wrong decision of the court to expel me on false base from the Russia and cancel my asylum prior is expiration.
• My 2 first 2 asylum applications in Chisinau 2022 and Kaliningrad 2023 where successfully accepted and granted but lasted one year only.
Migration card from Moscow (T.Asylum) Airport Ticket for my Flight Entry Stamp 043 at Airport, desk 5
Full Ticket from Budapest, Got from Kiosk 44 in Budapest Airport
One Way ticket
Variant 2, Direct Permanent Residency application The Grounds to apply :
• Anyone can apply for a Permanent Residency rights in the RA if the person is Working officially there or owning a company or sole proprietorship in the RA.
• The PR is valid 5 Years, and takes the form of a plastic card, after 3 years of PR the person can apply for a RA Citizenship.
• The details how to apply for Permanent or Temporary residency will be written in the form of an article.
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+ Business Already Opened PE DAMIEN JEAN YVES JEGADO (code 47.91.0 internet shop), i already opened a Sole Proprietorship in Yerevan and register it with the tax authorities with the help of my local accounter.
For the Purpose of Trading with Russia and my Russian Company, China and Armenia (there is no customs Tax or Duties between Armenia and Russia, Eurasian Economic Union)
* I also Were able to notarized my Passport with the Russian Translation agency www.leveltranslation.ru
+ Got an Armenian Social Number (after difficulty's)
After some time i will be able to apply for the 1 year Temporary Residency in Armenia.
-Armenia Map, at landlocked Terriroty Between Georgia, Turkey, Iran, Azerbaidjan.
-29 743 Square Km, Yerevan is the Capital.
-Currently only the Iran and Georgian Borders are opened.
